98th Oscars Predictions

For the first time in a while, most of the winners aren’t as clear cut. I thought I would throw my 2 pennies in the hat and give my predictions. I’ve always watched all the marquee movies, but this is the first time I’ve been able to watch all the documentary and shorts as well. (which means I’m actually more qualified to vote a good number of the actual voters!) It’s so crazy how that, in my opinion, minimum standard is not mandated. But I digress…

In the grand scheme of things, these awards are fickle and purely subjective. But man are they fun. Plus, the G.O.A.T. Conan O’Brien is back as host, and it’ll be fantastic. Oscar snubs aside, much of the candidates are worth the Oscar nods. 2025 was a great year for cinema and I hope the Oscars can provide a nice finale to this past movie season.

Fun fact, I used to watch the Oscars every year with my Dad. Afterwards, any movie we didn’t see, he would always do his best to rent at Blockbuster or Hollywood video. I then became a teenager, then joined the Navy and we moved away from that tradition. Shortly after his passing, I strayed away from the Oscars and going to the cinema in general, just hurt I couldn’t enjoy with him anymore. But these past few years I’ve gotten back and enjoying it twice as much for both me and my Dad. Now I can do the same with my kids.

The following will be just my predictions (you’ve read a lot already, if at all, and thanks if you didn’t skip that preamble, if you did, oh well. But I wont make you read more than you have to) The second half of this blog will be my thoughts and feelings along with who I’d vote for and not just who I think will win wand why.

Best Picture

Sinners

Best Directing

Paul Thomas Anderson – One Battle After Another

Shorts

• Documentary Short Film
• All the Empty Rooms
• Armed Only With a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud
• Children No More: Were and Are Gone
• The Devil Is Busy
• Perfectly a Strangeness

All The Empty Rooms is a pretty depression short doc, Steve Hartman goes to the families of school shootings victims and documents the families who have not done anything to their childrens room. It’s really powerful just as it is sad and carries more weight than the other shorts in totality.

If I had a vote, I would have voted for Armed Only With a Camera. It covers a journalist who is killed in Ukraine whilst documenting the war. The producer of the doc is his brother who is also a journalist and documents their lives before and after this tragedy. As someone who lost their brother recently, it just speaks to my soul. I think it does a better job at it’s storytelling as well but I just think the academy would sway from this due to it’s subject matter.

Live Action Short Film

• Butcher's Stain
• A Friend of Dorothy
• Jane Austen's Period Drama
• The Singers
• Two People Exchanging Saliva

Two People Exchanging Saliva would be my vote and what I think will win. It’s such a beautifully grotesque allegory on today’s society as a whole in my opinion. Plus I’m a sucker for a good black and white flick, and looking at history, so is the Academy.

Animated Short Film

• Butterfly
• Forevergreen
• The Girl Who Cried Pearls
• Retirement Plan
• The Three Sisters

This is one category I have 0 confidence it. If one category will cause chaos to my predictions, this is the one. The thing is, I think most of these are fantastic, barring The Three Sisters, and it can really be any of them. I would vote for The Girl Who Cried Pearls but because of the paint brush animation and the message that Butterfly gives off, I have to go with that.

Best Cinematography

• Dan Laustsen (Frankenstein)
• Darius Khondji(Marty Supreme)
• Michael Bauman (One Battle After Another)
• Autumn Durald Arkapaw (Sinners)
• Adolpho Veloso (Train Dreams)

Sinners is beautifully shot. Seeing this in 70MM Imax really brought this nighttime scenery to life. Plus that dance scene in the barn is up there with one of the most beautiful shots in history so Autumn Durald Arkapaw deserves her flowers. So Sinners has my vote. It’s just that I think Michael Bauman takes it for One Battle After Another. That driving scene at the climax recreates the most basic scene a movie can produce and makes it look like a POV from a James Bond chase. The top of the building scenes are also phenomenal, so I just see the voters giving this to One Battle After Another.

Film Editing

• Stephen Mirrione (F1)
• Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme)
• Andy Jurgenson (One Battle After Another)
• Olivier Bugge Coutté(Sentimental Value)
• Michael P. Shawver (Sinners)

Honestly, to me, this category is up in the air. All are deserving. I would vote Sinners as I think that the cutaways and scene creation here are more integral to the overall storytelling, but I just think they’ll give it to One Battle After Another.

Production Design - Prod Des/Set Decor

• Tamara Deverell & Shane Vieau (Frankenstein)
• Fiona Crombie & Alice Felton (Hamnet)
• Jack Fisk & Adam Willis (Marty Supreme)
• Florencia Martin & Anthony Carlino (One Battle After Another)
• Hannah Beachler & Monique Champagne (Sinners)

Hament gets my vote as I think immersing the movie in that forest and the lighting done in the rooms, give Jessie Buckleys aura so much more of that mysterious vibe that they were going for. Plus that stage at the end, sheeeeeesh. Chefs kiss! I just think that Frankenstein will sway the voters in this category due to the look of the movie being so unique when compared to other Frankenstein movies.

Costume Design

• Deborah L. Scott (Avatar: Fire and Ash)
• Kate Hawley (Frankenstein)
• Malgosia Turzanska (Hamnet)
• Miyako Bellizzi (Marty Supreme)
• Ruth E. Carter (Sinners)

Frankenstein SHOULD dominate here. All of these movies are great with their costume designs but man, the look of the wear and tear of those rags for Frankenstein Monster, the doctor himself having his clothing reflect his declining sanity. Man… it’s great. So my guess is the aforementioned Frankenstein, but I could easily see this going to Sinners or Marty Supreme.

Makeup and Hairstyling

• Frankenstein
• Kokuho
• Sinners
• The Smashing Machine
• The Ugly Stepsister

My vote goes to, an what I think should win, Kokuho. Listen, that movie isn’t for everyone, expecially if you’re only used to Western cinema. But the makeup is insane here. The category is also Hairstyling. The other films just don’t compare to category that should be judged with both criteria.

Sound

• F1
• Frankenstein
• One Battle After Another
• Sinners
• Sirāt

I honestly can see Sirāt winning because that sound design is off the chain, literally, and it not only is it the best part of the movie but it’s integral and it just sounds great. My vote, however, goes to F1. You believe those sounds, you could close your eyes during the non speaking parts and follow along. Along with great visuals, the sound makes you feel like you’re on Brad Pitts lap, if that isn’t Oscar worthy, than idk what is.

Original Song

• "Dear Me" (Diane Warren: Relentless)
• "Golden" (KPop Demon Hunters)
• "I Lied to You" (Sinners)
• "Sweet Dreams of Joy" (Viva Verdi!)
• "Train Dreams" (Train Dreams)

With apologies to Diane Warren, Golden should be the runaway winner here. Not only is it a bop and took over culturally for a while by making Asian people all over feel seen with representation on the screen and radios, but man is it hyper relevant to the movie. That should matter. It shouldn’t just be a theme song or what you use to promote the movie in trailers just to play in the end credits. It forshadows and pays off in the movie. You can argue that I Lied To You does the same for Sinners, but I just don’t think it reaches that glory that Golden does.

Best Original Score

• Bugonia
• Frankenstein
• Hamnet
• One Battle After Another
• Sinners

A literal travesty of this doesn’t go to Sinners. The overall score is relevant to the movie. From the music played during the clubbing, to the literal devil killing rhythms in the end. I’m not a big score guy, if it sounds good it sounds good. Honestly I can see any one of these movies winning but Sinners is my pick.

Best Visual Effects

• Avatar: Fire and Ash
• F1
• Jurassic World Rebirth
• The Lost Bus
• Sinners

Come on… did you not see that movie?

Best Casting

• Hamnet
• Marty Supreme
• One Battle After Another
• The Secret Agent
• Sinners

This is the first time this category is being showcased at the Oscars, so I really don’t have any clue how to judge this. I’m going to go with the ensemble as a whole as supposed to individual performances coming together for the movie, because if that’s the case I would think Sinners? But Marty Supreme, being able to find these essentially non actors come in and fill in these roles so believably is what does it for me.

Best International Feature Film

• The Secret Agent (Brazil)
• It Was Just an Accident (France)
• Sentimental Value (Norway)
• Sirāt (Spain)
• The Voice of Hind Rajab (Tunisia)

My personal favorite of this bunch is The Voice of Hind Rajab and I use the term “favorite” loosely. It just struck me in my soul, and I think the creative choices made are purely peak film making. Although I foun Kokuho the most entertaining, with all the awards and buzz surrounding Sentimental Values, I would honestly be shocked if it didn’t win.

Best Documentary Feature

• The Alabama Solution
• Come See Me in the Good Light
• Cutting Through Rocks
• Nobody Against Putin
• The Perfect Neighbor

Best doc is always tough, is it how the subject is presented to you or is the subject matter at hand? I would vote for Mr. Nobody Against Putin because man, he literally cannot return home without being killed, man he might still get killed, because of the fact that he made this thing. All I have is my gut, and I foresee The Perfect Neighbor taking the cake here.

Best Original Screenplay

• Blue Moon – Robert Kaplow
• It Was Just an Accident – Jafar Panahi
• Marty Supreme – Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie
• Sentimental Value – Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier
• Sinners – Ryan Coogler

Here I would vote for Sinners. As aesthetically pleasing as that movie is (and I’m not just talking about Michael B. Jordans face), it wouldn’t truly matter to me if the story wasn’t a beautiful piece of story and dialogue. It’s a movie about struggle and hustling… WITH VAMPIRES. How the hell did Coogler make that work? But with a movie in Marty Supreme that has these non actors generate perfect on screen performances, I can see that Academy going there.

Best Adapted Screenplay

• Bugonia – Will Tracy
• Frankenstein – Guillermo del Toro
• Hamnet – Chloé Zhao and Maggie O'Farrell
• One Battle After Another – Paul Thomas Anderson
• Train Dreams – Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar

I have no grasp on this category. I would vote for Train Dreams, I think it’s a powerful piece of writing from the source material. And idk…. I think Hamnet will win.

Best Animated Feature Film

• Arco
• Elio
• KPop Demon Hunters
• Little Amélie or The Character of Rain
• Zootopia 2

I think even if you put aside the cultural phenoma that Kpop Demon Hunters was, it’s just the best movie here. Yeah maybe you give it to Zootopia 2 because… Pixar, but how everything ties together in the end, and even how the music relates to the story and character development, all those things considered, this is the best animated movie to have such layers to it since Encanto.

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

• Benicio del Toro – One Battle After Another
• Jacob Elordi – Frankenstein
• Delroy Lindo – Sinners
• Sean Penn – One Battle After Another
• Stellan Skarsgård – Sentimental Value

Maybe this is a lot closer than I think, but I can’t see Sean Penn not winning. He utilizes every tool an actor has in his performance as Steven J. Lockjaw and dominates every scene he is in. I don’t think the other nominees really come close. If the Academy is intent on Sinners sweeping these categories, then I can see Delroy Lindo winning, but outside of that this is really Penns award to lose in my opinion. I wouldn’t be upset if anyone here wins, I want to watch the world burn and have Jacob Elordi win for a role that has been played to death, I also think that Stellan Skarsgård is deserving, his performance is great! But yeah, I think Sean Penn wins this.

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

• Elle Fanning – Sentimental Value
• Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas – Sentimental Value
• Amy Madigan – Weapons
• Wunmi Mosaku – Sinners
• Teyana Taylor – One Battle After Another

This is the only category where I will pick what I want. Amy Madigan should win this, it would be a great win! Not just for the horror/thriller genre, but for the fact that these performances don’t need to be purely from “dramatic” or “serious” roles.

Best Actor in a Leading Role

• Timothée Chalamet – Marty Supreme
• Leonardo DiCaprio – One Battle After Another
• Ethan Hawke – Blue Moon
• Michael B. Jordan – Sinners
• Wagner Moura – The Secret Agent

This is gunna be real tough. For the longest time Timothee Chalamet was considered the favorite (due to internet buzz, sue me) but with Michael B. Jordan winning the actors award recently, I think he takes it. Personally, Ethan Hawk gets my vote, I think that he immerses himself the most in his role. I think everyone here is deserving, Hawk would be my pick just because I liked his performance the most. He goes deeper in the realm of acting by picking an a difficult role to make believable. Yes Michael B. Jordan plays 2 charactes, but how much different are they from roles that he’s taken from the past? I feel like the best thing out of his performance is that he’s able to differentiate both characters he plays so well. I’m also not saying this as a knock towards him, just that all these performances are great and I have to nitpick. Also, if you want MBJ to win just because he played 2 roles, than shouldn’t Wagner Moura win? He plays 3 roles.

Best Actress in a Leading Role

• Jessie Buckley – Hamnet
• Rose Byrne – If I Had Legs I'd Kick You
• Kate Hudson – Song Sung Blue
• Renate Reinsve – Sentimental Value
• Emma Stone – Bugonia

Jessie Buckley is winning this. She kills this role. I can see Rose Byrne winning because man, she kills that role too. Byre provides a more relatable performance with realism, but Buckley made me cry waterfalls. That is incredibly difficult, and I wasn’t the only one in the cinema experiencing that. Buckley shakes your core in her truly dominating performance. She should definitely win.

Best Directing

• Paul Thomas Anderson – One Battle After Another
• Ryan Coogler – Sinners
• Josh Safdie – Marty Supreme
• Joachim Trier – Sentimental Value
• Chloé Zhao – Hamnet

Damn… I have no clue who will win… for me, this is the hardest category…. All are such technical marvels in their directors seat, so I’m just going to vote for Coogler.

Best Picture

• Bugonia
• F1
• Frankenstein
• Hamnet
• Marty Supreme
• One Battle After Another
• The Secret Agent
• Sentimental Value
• Sinners
• Train Dreams

To me, this is a 2 movie race between Sinners and One Battle After Another. Since I went with Coogler for best director, I’m going to go vote for One Battle After Another. Hopefully that makes everyone happy. Is there a way that this can be tied? Man that stage would get so crowded, but that would be entertaining.

Both of these movies are instant classics and they are so different. As a society, we are definitely experiencing an embarrassment of riches with these films and cinema. Sinners is such a wonder to watch man… it hits all of the marks that a fantastic piece of cinema should hit, and honestly a lot of these movies do. But if the rest of my predictions come to fruition, then I think Paul Thomas Anderson and WB take the top prize.

Summary